Kyiv's Caucasus Offensive: Zelensky's Grasp for Moscow's Backyard
Vienna, May 5, 2026 – The summit of the European Political Community in Yerevan proved to be a diplomatic success for Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used the platform to forge closer ties with Armenia and simultaneously thaw frozen relations with Georgia. Moscow is observing developments with growing nervousness.
Armenia is turning away from Russia
The rapprochement between Kyiv and Yerevan is not surprising. In recent years, Armenia has painfully experienced the value of Russian security guarantees. The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, the lack of support from CSTO partners, and economic dependence on Moscow have left deep wounds. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is seeking alternatives. Ukraine is offering itself as a partner that has had similar experiences with Russian aggression. Specifically, both sides agreed to increased cooperation in defense matters and the exchange of intelligence information. Economic cooperation is also on the agenda.
Georgia is opening up cautiously
The relationship with Tbilisi is proving more complicated. The Georgian government, under the Georgian Dream party, maintains an ambivalent relationship with both Moscow and Brussels. Dialogue with Kyiv has been largely frozen since the start of the war. At the sidelines of the summit, the first direct high-level talks have now taken place. Georgia's Foreign Minister signaled willingness to normalize relations. The growing domestic political pressure is also a contributing factor. The pro-European opposition is gaining strength, and the majority of the population looks towards the West. A permanent rift with Ukraine would further jeopardize EU accession ambitions.
Moscow's shrinking influence
The Kremlin is losing ground in the South Caucasus. Russian peacekeeping troops in the region are considered ineffective, and economic leverage is wearing thin. At the same time, the war in Ukraine is tying up massive resources. Kyiv is skillfully exploiting this weakness. Zelensky is presenting his country as a reliable partner for states seeking to break free from Russia's sphere of influence. The message is clear: those who break with Moscow are not alone.
The Two Sides of Power
Kyiv's Caucasus offensive demonstrates diplomatic skill. Ukraine is using the emerging vacuum to build its own networks. However, the strategy carries risks. Armenia and Georgia are fragile partners with their own problems. Pashinyan is under domestic pressure, and Georgia's government is wavering between East and West. Moscow will not accept developments idly. The Kremlin has enough leverage to destabilize both countries. For Ukraine, this means: every diplomatic success in the Caucasus must be secured in the long term. Symbolism alone is not enough. The region needs concrete support, economic prospects, and reliable security guarantees. Whether Kyiv can deliver this while fighting for its own survival remains to be seen.
YANUS continues to observe the development.
Source: Kyiv Post | Original Article
