The Iran Crisis as a Warning Signal: Why Japan and South Korea Are Already Thinking About Taiwan

Vienna, April 22, 2026. The escalation in the Persian Gulf has struck a nerve in East Asia that extends far beyond the current energy crisis. Japan and South Korea, both of which depend on oil imports from the Middle East for more than 80 percent of their supply, are currently experiencing a painful dress rehearsal for a scenario that their strategic planners have feared for years: a blockade of the sea lanes in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait.

East Asia's Vulnerable Lifeline

The figures speak for themselves. Japan imports about 90 percent of its crude oil by sea, and South Korea as much as 97 percent. The majority of these shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, that 54-kilometer-wide strait that has currently become a geopolitical bottleneck. Oil prices in Tokyo and Seoul have risen by 40 percent since the start of the Iran crisis, and industrial companies are already scaling back their production.

But while Western observers are focusing on the Middle East, Japanese and South Korean strategists are already looking further east. The Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Strait are even more critical to both countries than the Strait of Hormuz. These waterways carry not only energy resources but also semiconductors, electronic components, and raw materials—the backbone of East Asia’s economic power.

Taiwan: The Scenario No One Talks About Openly

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has used the crisis as an opportunity to reignite the debate over strategic oil reserves. Japan currently has reserves sufficient for about 200 days; in the event of a Taiwan crisis, that might not be enough. Meanwhile, South Korea’s president has announced an accelerated diversification of energy imports, with an increased focus on liquefied natural gas from the U.S. and Australia.

The strategic calculation is both simple and unsettling: should China ever undertake a blockade or military action against Taiwan, the economic repercussions for Japan and South Korea would be many times more severe than the current Iran crisis. Over three trillion dollars in goods pass through the Taiwan Strait annually. An interruption would plunge not only East Asia but the entire global supply chain into crisis.

Europe in the Slipstream of Escalation

For European observers, the reactions in Tokyo and Seoul offer important insights. Dependence on maritime trade routes is not a regional weakness; it is a structural risk of the globalized economy. Austria’s industrial sector, which is heavily integrated into international supply chains, would feel the full brunt of a crisis in Taiwan. Semiconductor shortages, such as those that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, would be just a taste of what’s to come.

Japan and South Korea are now drawing conclusions that should also be discussed in Europe: increased stockpiling of critical goods, diversification of suppliers, and an honest debate about the costs of strategic autonomy. According to diplomatic circles, the German federal government is observing these developments with growing concern.

The Two Sides of Power

The Iran crisis reveals an uncomfortable truth: The economic interdependence that for decades was seen as a guarantee of peace has long since become a strategic vulnerability. Japan and South Korea are currently learning this lesson the hard way, and Europe should take a close look. After all, what is happening today in the Persian Gulf could escalate tomorrow in the Taiwan Strait. YANUS continues to track the geopolitical tensions between East and West.