The Iran Crisis as a Warning Signal: Why Japan and South Korea Are Already Thinking About Taiwan
Vienna, April 22, 2026 — The escalation in the Persian Gulf has struck a nerve in East Asia that reaches far beyond the current energy crisis. Japan and South Korea, both over 80 percent dependent on oil imports from the Middle East, are currently undergoing a painful dress rehearsal for a scenario that their strategic planners have feared for years: a blockade of the sea lanes in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait.
East Asia's Vulnerable Lifeline
The numbers speak a clear language. Japan imports around 90 percent of its crude oil via maritime routes, while South Korea imports as much as 97 percent. The majority of these shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz – that 54-kilometer-wide strait that has currently become a geopolitical bottleneck. Oil prices in Tokyo and Seoul have risen by 40 percent since the beginning of the Iran crisis, and industrial companies are already throttling back their production.
While Western observers focus on the Middle East, Japanese and South Korean strategists are already looking further east. The Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Strait are even more critical for both countries than Hormuz. These waters carry not only energy but also semiconductors, electronic components, and raw materials – the backbone of East Asia's economic power.
Taiwan: The Scenario No One Talks About Openly
In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has used the crisis to reignite the debate on strategic oil reserves. Japan currently has reserves for about 200 days – which might not be enough in a Taiwan crisis scenario. Meanwhile, South Korea's President has announced accelerated diversification of energy imports, with an increased focus on liquefied natural gas from the US and Australia.
The strategic calculation is both simple and unsettling: should China ever undertake a blockade or military action against Taiwan, the economic repercussions for Japan and South Korea would be many times more severe than the current Iran crisis. Over three trillion dollars in goods pass through the Taiwan Strait annually. An interruption would plunge not only East Asia but the entire global supply chain into crisis.
Europe in the Slipstream of Escalation
For European observers, the reactions in Tokyo and Seoul offer important insights. The dependence on maritime trade routes is not a regional weakness – it is a structural risk of the globalized economy. Austrian industry, heavily integrated into international supply chains, would feel the full impact of a Taiwan crisis. Semiconductor shortages, like those that occurred during the Corona pandemic, would be just a taste of what's to come.
Japan and South Korea are now drawing conclusions that should also be discussed in Europe: increased stockpiling of critical goods, diversification of suppliers, and an honest debate about the costs of strategic autonomy. According to diplomatic circles, the German federal government is observing these developments with growing concern.
The Two Sides of Power
The Iran crisis reveals an uncomfortable truth: economic interdependence, long considered a guarantor of peace, has become a strategic vulnerability. Japan and South Korea are currently learning this lesson the hard way – and Europe should pay close attention. Because what is happening in the Persian Gulf today could escalate in the Taiwan Strait tomorrow. YANUS continues to track geopolitical realignments between East and West.
